SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP16
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 16  ARLP016
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  April 17, 2009
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP016
ARLP016 Propagation de K7RA

Still no sunspots, and again we saw a prediction for slightly higher
solar flux slip away.  If you go to
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and click on
any forecast prior to April 14, you will see solar flux numbers at
72 predicted for the end of this month.  But in the few days since
then, any predicted values over 70 have vanished, including another
set of slightly higher numbers in late May.

NASA had a recent release with new information about coronal mass
ejections as observed by the STEREO mission.  See it at
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/14apr_3dcme.htm.

Hank Pfizenmayer, K7HP of Phoenix, Arizona has been using beacons to
let him know when bands are open, and he is discovering what others
have reported, that when a band is quiet, this doesn't mean the
openings are not there.

Hank wrote, "While the VK9GMW folks have been on, I have been
checking the beacons on 17 and 15 meters and on 15 specifically,
well over half the days between 2000z and 0300z I hear the ZL6B
beacon - usually hear the KH6, sometimes the W6. This is with a KT34
at 42 feet in a noisy suburban location. Interesting I have not
heard the VK beacon at all - about 1900 miles farther but
essentially same beam heading   Of course the LU and OA beacons are
there almost every day even with the antenna on VK/ZL. Several days
I can copy the ZL6B beacon at the 100 mW step."

Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia had some thoughts
to share with Mickey, K5ML, who had comments featured in last week's
bulletin.

He writes, "I saw your comments in the ARRL prop bulletin and felt
compelled to say few things about conditions now vs. the top of the
cycle."

He continues, "Some parts of the world, mainly some days are much
better than others as was the case this week on April 7th when Spain
was worked on 17M at 2130z and 30M was wide open to EU, AF working
3B8MM, and the western Pacific at the same time allowing me to catch
Mellish Reef for a new one on 30M."

He goes on to say, "SE Asia (even JAs are not easy from here near
DC) are extremely difficult to work here at the bottom of the cycle
especially mid-winter, because there is essentially no useable
ionosphere around the north pole. Also, many ops are poorly equipped
for 10 MHz and below with very limited antennas, but have a
tribander for 10-20M. Some days are much better than others as was
the case this week on April 7th when Spain was worked on 17M at
2130z and 30M was wide open to EU, AF working 3B8MM, and the western
Pacific at the same time allowing me to catch Mellish Reef for a new
one on 30M."

He ends with, "With your vertical and a good 10M opening, you will
be amazed how strong long haul DX signals are and how easy they are
to work. I was fairly new to DXing in the fall of 1978 and had just
put up a 4 el Yagi for 10M at 45 ft and it was a real killer into
everywhere from central Asia, to Europe, Africa and SA. RH8EAA in
Turkmenistan was S9+ in Oct 78, day after day and I was able to
call CQ and get many answers from UA9 and UL7 (now UN). During one
CQWW CW contest, G4BUO called me running less than one milliwatt and
I was able to copy him on the 2nd try!  So, long story shortened it
is a lot more fun with higher solar activity. 6 meters will be full
of activity at the cycle peak, and I can't wait for the next one. In
the meantime, I'm having fun chasing countries on 160 and 30 meters
primarily and hunting counties as well."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web page at,
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.  For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html.  An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this
bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email.

Sunspot numbers for April 9 through 15 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0
with a mean of 0.  10.7 cm flux was 70.1, 69.4, 69.3, 69.3, 68.4,
69.4, and 69.4 with a mean of 69.3.  Estimated planetary A indices
were 12, 8, 9, 8, 4, 2 and 3 with a mean of 6.6.  Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 9, 6, 7, 4, 3, 1 and 2 with a mean of
4.6.
NNNN
/EX