SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7VVV

ZCZC AP19
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 19  ARLP019
From Tad Cook, K7VVV
Seattle, WA  May 7, 1999
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP019
ARLP019 Propagation de K7VVV

Solar flux was up this week, averaging 27 points higher than the
week before.  Sunspot number averages grew from 74 to 106.6.
Predicted solar flux for this weekend is 145, 145 and 140 for Friday
though Sunday, with planetary A indices of 15, 12 and 10 for the
same days.  Beyond the weekend, unless new sunspots come into view,
solar flux will probably drift back to below 130 after May 10, then
below 120 after the middle of the month.  Look for return of
geomagnetic storms around May 25 through 28.

Sunspot Numbers for April 29 through May 5 were 98, 80, 92, 136, 95,
100 and 145 with a mean of 106.6.  10.7 cm flux was 122.1, 123.5,
105.4, 135.7, 127.1, 138.7 and 140.9, with a mean of 127.6, and
estimated planetary A indices were 19, 21, 19, 13, 9, 6 and 7, with
a mean of 13.4.

The path projection for this week is from the center of the
continental USA.  We have now come full circle, back to where the
path projections began in ARLP009.  Next week the beginning point of
the projections will be New York City, just as it was in ARLP010,
followed by Atlanta.  The times mentioned for each band are good
bets for working the target locations.  Although many stations will
have propagation outside of these times, during the times given the
chances of working someone with strong signals in the target area is
very good, assuming they are listening.  The projections assume
modest stations, with a dipoles on 80, 40 and 30, and a yagi on 20
meters and above.

To Western Europe, 80 meters 0130-0500 UTC, 40 meters 0030-0630 UTC,
30 meters 2200-0900 UTC, 20 meters open all hours, best signals
around 0200 UTC, weakest 1100 UTC and 1530 UTC, 17 meters 1630-0030
UTC.

To Eastern Europe, 40 meters 0130-0330 UTC, 30 meters 2330-0530 UTC,
20 meters all hours, best signals 0230 UTC, weakest 1400-1600 UTC,
17 meters 0330-0500 UTC and 1200-2330 UTC, 15 meters 1700-2130 UTC.

To Southern Africa, 80 meters 0130-0430 UTC, 40 meters 0030-0430
UTC, 30 meters 2330-0530 UTC, 20 meters 2100-0200 UTC and 0430-0730
UTC, 17 meters 1800-0100 UTC, 15 meters 1730-2330 UTC.

To the Caribbean, 80 meters 0030-1030 UTC, 40 meters 2230-1200 UTC,
30 meters 2000-1500 UTC, 20 meters 1000-0700 UTC, 17 meters 1400-
0330 UTC.

To South America, 80 meters 0100-1000 UTC, 40 meters 0030-1030 UTC,
30 meters 2300-1130 UTC, 20 meters all hours, best signals 0200-
0930 UTC, weakest 1630-1730 UTC, 17 meters 1100-0630 UTC, 15 meters
1200-0530 UTC, 12 meters 1600-2230 UTC, 10 meters possibly 1500-
2300 UTC.

To Hawaii, 80 meters 0430-1230 UTC, 40 meters 0330-1330 UTC, 30
meters 0200-1500 UTC, 20 meters all hours, best signals 0500-1130
UTC, weakest 2030 UTC, 17 meters 1200-0900 UTC, best signals 0500-
0730 UTC, 15 meters 1500-0730 UTC, 12 meters around 2130 UTC, 10
meters possibly 1800-2200 UTC.

To the South Pacific, 80 meters 0500-1230 UTC, 40 meters 0430-1230
UTC, 30 meters 0330-1430 UTC, 20 meters 0200-1430 UTC, 17 meters
1730-1400 UTC, 15 meters 1700-0800 UTC and 1230-1400 UTC, 12 meters
1730-0600 UTC, 10 meters 1730-0030 UTC.

To Australia, 80 meters 0700-1200 UTC, 40 meters 0630-1300 UTC, 30
meters 0530-1330 UTC, 20 meters 0400-1430 UTC, 17 meters 0200-0830
UTC, 15 meters 0000-0700 UTC, 12 meters 2100-2300 UTC, 10 meters
possibly 2130-2300 UTC.

To Japan, 80 meters 1000-1100 UTC, 40 meters 0900-1230 UTC, 30
meters 0800-1400 UTC, 20 meters 0500-1630 UTC, 17 meters 1200-1600
UTC and 1830-0830 UTC, 15 meters 1830-0530 UTC.

To Central Asia, 20 meters 1200-1500 UTC and 2200-0300 UTC, 17
meters 1200-0600 UTC, 15 meters 1500-2030 UTC.
NNNN
/EX